Nottinghamshire needs at least an extra five officers every month (65 officers every year) to cope with predicted demand levels over the next four years, a new independent report has revealed.
A new demand model, drawn up by national crime experts Crest Advisory, has for the first time exposed the real gap between reactive police demand and resources in the county – and the provision needed to plug it.
The research, commissioned by Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner Paddy Tipping and Chief Constable Craig Guildford, warns police officer time is already being outstripped by demand across the county – and predicts an extra 260 police officers are needed by 2023 if the Force is to meet growing pressures, which will amount to some 29,000 extra hours every month.
Rising levels of recorded and reported violent and sexual offences are partly to blame, which includes greater reporting of historic offences. These offences came to represent 64% of “all crime” demand (excluding non-crime incidents) in 2018 compared to 53% in 2014.
The findings of the report are being revealed today ahead of being presented at the National Police Chiefs Council on July 17.
Crest’s model is bespoke to Nottinghamshire and has been built to match its unique structure. Correlation-wise the Crest modelling indicates that it paints a very similar and proportionate picture for Bedfordshire Police.
The model is based on a number of statistical forecasting techniques and predicts both the scale and type of demand to help the Force sustain services and improve planning over the next four to five years. It also provides a clear evidence-base on which policing policy decisions can be made and it helps underline the case for increased national funding.
The model is being presented to a meeting of the National Police Chiefs Council on 17 July 2019 to highlight the benefits for future demand mapping.
Paddy Tipping said: “This is the first time that reactive demand has been modelled in this way and provides an accurate assessment of what is needed to protect our services in the long term. This is precisely what HMICFRS have been asking of the service.
“This data is backed up by hard evidence and gives us an insight into the challenges facing our unique county in the coming years.
“As the research shows, demand is already outstripping available resources and it is critical we act now to boost our capacity in the places where they are most needed. Any further force efficiencies within its current budget would be at the margins according to the report.”
Craig Guildford added: “The Crest report is a really helpful piece of demand analysis which CC Forsythe and I am sharing with fellow Chiefs, The Home Office and HMICFRS. I’ve challenged, tested and corroborated a large amount of the reactive demand modelling with over 150 cops and it absolutely underlines to me that my officers and staff are individually and collectively producing a huge amount of work on behalf of the public. They carry a significant workload when compared with peers and I’m incredibly humbled with the amount of brilliant results and service they deliver given the demand we deal with.
“We’ve increased our officer numbers back up to the 2000 mark and I echo many of the comments made by Sir Thomas Windsor in his recent annual report as I look forward to how the CSR and national funding formula work will hopefully lead to a positive outcome both locally and nationally.”
According to the report, the force has been operating “at or over capacity” since 2016 and has 172,259 available officer hours per month to respond to reactive incidents reported through the control room and crimes reported by the public. This does not take account of proactive work including counter terrorism or organised crime.
By July next year, the gap between available hours and reactive demand is forecast to hit 23,500 hours – which will climb to 29,000 per month by 2023. This will require an extra £19.2m in extra police officers over the next three years.
Data shows 26% of police demand in 2018 was spent responding to non-crime incidents, while 20% accounted for the initial response to incidents and 54% related to secondary investigation of crime.
The report also reveals increased demand from hoax calls which accounted for 1901 police officer hours per month on average in 2018.
The model predicts the top five demand pressures in 2023 as violence with injury, violence without injury, public order, sexual offences and shoplifting. Meanwhile, burglary demand is likely to remain more stable.
The report warns the Force may need to invest in more local detectives and specialist skill sets including forensic and digital investigation to meet the challenge posed by violence and sexual offending.
Crest Advisory are national experts in police demand, having published in 2018 a national report on police demand.
They were commissioned by the PCC and Chief Constable to analyse current and future demand on Nottinghamshire Police to support the force's strategic and operational planning.
The Report can be downloaded HERE
For Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner, contact Sallie Blair 01283 821012
For Crest Advisory, contact Jon Clements (020) 3542 8993
Posted on Wednesday 17th July 2019